The 2017 film The Disaster Artist chronicled the production of Tommy Wiseau’s 2003 movie The Room, which Wiseau thought was a masterpiece while most humans believe it was one of the worst films ever made.1 In that vein, “Disaster Candidate” is my term for office-seekers who are so bad at running for office or so alienating that they doom their party to defeat in otherwise-winnable races.2 After a spike in disaster candidates for U.S. Senate in 2010 and 2012, both parties have largely been able to ensure they nominate quality candidates for U.S. Senate in the decade since. However, that looks like it will soon change thanks to the ongoing Trump-McConnell feud and newly-emboldened progressive activists buoyed by recent successes in Democratic primaries.
While high quality candidates can come out of nowhere, this is less true for disaster candidates - that is what makes them such disasters, after all. Like One World Trade Center or the World’s Largest Jolly Green Giant, most political observers can see them coming from a mile away. After an overview of the biggest disaster candidates of the last decade, I’ve put together a list of the Top 8 Disaster Candidates to watch in 2022. These folks’ success or failure will have wide ramifications for control of the Senate and the last two years of Biden’s term.
Legitimate Rape, Corruption and Witches: The 2010s Disaster Candidate Hall of Shame
In the past decade, both parties’ voters have nominated calamitous candidates who kicked away what should have been winnable Senate seats for their party.
2010
Alexi Giannoulias (D-IL) and Martha Chokely (D-MA) were backed by national Democrats and failed to hold onto Barack Obama and Ted Kennedy’s safe Senate seats. Ken Buck (R-CO), Sharron Angle (R-NV), and Christine O’Donnell (R-DE)3 defeated more establishment/moderate Republicans in the primary who likely would’ve won their races easily had they been the nominees. Instead, these three lost to underwhelming opponents in what should have been winnable races after each made stupid comments that showed they were not ready for prime time.
2012
Republicans were expected to gain seats in 2012 (Democrats were defending 23 seats compared to the GOP’s 10), but instead lost two seats thanks in part to four hapless nominees. Richard Mourdock (R-IN) defeated incumbent Senator Richard Lugar (R-IN) in the primary with Tea Party backing, stuck his foot in his mouth over abortion and lost to a Democrat in a state Mitt Romney won by 10 points.
Todd Akin (R-MO) won a three-way primary with the support of conservative grassroots activists and his Democratic opponent, incumbent Senator Claire McCaskill. McCaskill wisely identified Akin as a disaster candidate, ran ads designed to bolster him in the GOP primary, and was rewarded handsomely when Akin made appallingly stupid remarks about abortion. Akin would go on to lose by 15 points while Mitt Romney was carrying Missouri easily.4
Connie Mack IV (R-FL) and Rick Berg (R-ND) were establishment-backed candidates who blew winnable races by embarrassing margins (I cannot emphasize this enough: Berg lost an open seat race in NORTH DAKOTA). Shelley Berkley’s (D-NV) corruption scandals contributed to Nevada being the only state to vote for Obama for president and a Republican for Senate.
2017
Roy Moore (R-AL) is probably the most prominent Disaster Candidate in recent times. Rather than nominate incumbent Sen. Luther Strange or Rep. Mo Brooks, Republican voters in their infinite wisdom picked an alleged pederast. Alabama responded by electing a Democrat to the Senate for the first time in my lifetime.
2020
The revelation that Cal Cunningham (D-NC) engaged in an extramarital affair while he was running for Senate upended a race he was expected to win and allowed incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
The Establishment Strikes Back
All told, disaster candidates cost Republicans seven Senate seats and one special election and Democrats two Senate seats and one special election. These have real-world policy ramifications. For example, had any one of the four GOP disaster candidates won their races in 2012, Republicans would’ve had the votes to repeal Obamacare in 2017.
You may have noticed a steep drop-off in disaster candidates after 2012. Starting in 2014, Republican leader Mitch McConnell and the NRSC5 got tired of losing winnable races and made a concerted effort to put down disaster candidate insurgencies. This effort was largely successful, with Republicans picking up nine Senate seats in 2014, but faces new challenges thanks to former President Donald Trump. Trump’s feud with McConnell and habit of putting his personal grievances or petty vendettas over the party’s best interest threatens to bring the GOP back to the bad old days of 2010-2012 - that is, the years of unforced errors and self-inflicted defeats.6
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and the Democrats face their own challenges. The ongoing progressive insurgency, hallmarked by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Cori Bush and Jamaal Bowman’s defeats of longtime Democratic incumbents in 2018-20, threatens to make Senate Democrats’ efforts to keep the Senate even more difficult than it already is. As progressives should have learned in 2018, winning low-turnout Democratic primaries in safe seats is not the same thing as winning competitive races in swing states or districts.7 So, without further ado…
The Top 8 Disaster Candidates to Watch in 2022
Ex-Gov. Eric Greitens (R-MO):
Navy SEAL and lifelong Democrat Greitens switched parties shortly before running for and winning the governorship in 2016. After 17 short months as governor, the (then) married father of two resigned in disgrace after earning himself two felony charges for 1) allegedly abusing, tying up and photographing his mistress to blackmail her into silence and 2) his campaign’s alleged theft of a donor list from a veteran’s nonprofit he founded. Top Republicans have described Greitens as a “clear and present danger” and he may be the only Republican capable of losing a Senate race in Missouri. Naturally, he’s being backed by many in Trump’s orbit and is currently leading in the polls.
Lt. Governor John Fetterman (D-PA)
Fetterman is a Bernie Sanders-backed left wing populist and the former mayor of the small town of Braddock, Pennsylvania.8 This is Fetterman’s second attempt at Pennsylvania’s Class 3 seat after finishing in a distant third in the 2016 Democratic primary with 19 percent of the vote. Fetterman’s only statewide electoral success came in 2018. Reaping the rewards of being the only Western Pennsylvanian running against four candidates from the East, Fetterman won the Democratic primary for lieutenant governor with a resounding 37.5 percent of the vote.9 For a candidate as prominent as Fetterman, its remarkable he has gotten this far without once facing an electorate that was not made up entirely of Democrats.
This has not stopped Fetterman from quickly emerging as the early fundraising leader, thanks in part to his national fanbase of upscale white progressives,10 and in a crowded field he may be able to once again win with a plurality. Fetterman’s left-wing ideology and an incident where he pulled a gun on a black jogger he racially profiled are likely to be handicaps if he is the nominee. Pennsylvania has reelected exactly one Democrat to the Senate in the last sixty years. That Democrat, Sen. Bob Casey Jr., is pro-life and somewhat moderate. Fetterman doesn’t come close to fitting that mold.11 Fetterman is the Pennsylvania Democrat most likely to keep Pat Toomey’s seat in Republican hands.
Ex-Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel (R-OH):
Mandel is making his third try for the Senate after his 2012 defeat and abruptly pulling the plug on his 2018 comeback attempt. Now that he has divorced his wife (and unfortunately for his campaign coffers, her wealthy family) and discovered that old-time MAGA religion, Mandel seems to believe that 2022 will finally be his year. Mandel 3.0 seems to believe shitposting is the key to getting attention and money. In his short campaign, he’s been restricted by Twitter for posting a racist Twitter poll, launched attacks on fellow Republicans Mike DeWine and Anthony Gonzalez in a transparent attempt to brownnose Trump for his endorsement and claimed the 2020 election was stolen for Donald Trump inter alia.
In short, Josh Mandel is a lying liar who lies. His inveterate shapeshifting and record of defeats makes him by far the weakest possible Republican candidate for Senate in Ohio. Ohio has become steadily more Republican over the past decade, but if anyone is capable of reversing that trend its Josh Mandel.
Arizona GOP Chair Kelli Ward (R-AZ)
Like Josh Mandel, “Chemtrail” Kelli Ward just doesn’t know when to quit. She launched a primary challenge against the late John McCain in 2016, losing by 12 points. She ran for Arizona’s other senate seat in 2018, placing a distant second to Rep. Martha McSally in the Republican primary. Now, she’s considering a third run against recently-elected Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ). Ward is a nut, she’s been fully onboard the “Stop the Steal” train and she may have stolen the 2020 race for Arizona GOP chair. Arizona turned sharply left during the Trump years, going in four short years from being a Republican stronghold to voting for Joe Biden for President and electing two Democratic senators for the first time in three decades. Clearly, the now-former Republican voters of Arizona do not like Trump or his acolytes. Nominating Arizona’s chief tinfoil-hat-wearer would likely guarantee Kelly’s reelection.
Rep. Paul Gosar (R-AZ)
There must be something in the water in Arizona. Prior to 2020, Paul Gosar was perhaps most famous for being publicly condemned by his own family. In the past four months alone, he has spoken at a white nationalist conference, been accused of encouraging the Capitol riot, pulled out of an interview with a QAnon talk show after public criticism, and along with No. 7 on this list allegedly begged Trump for a pardon for his role in the Capitol insurrection.
Ex-Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL)
Grayson served three non-consecutive terms in Congress, but is perhaps best known for a litany of inflammatory remarks, a history of domestic abuse allegations, trying to engineer his second wife’s election as his successor, and generally being a terrible human being. After losing badly in the 2016 Democratic primary to take on Sen. Marco Rubio, Grayson is exploring a second attempt. Republicans can only hope he’ll be more successful in the 2022 Democratic primary than he was six years ago.
Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ)
Biggs, the chairman of the hardcore pro-Trump House Freedom Caucus, has similar problems to Gosar - and not just because he also appealed to Trump to pardon him for his conduct on January 6. Biggs voted against honoring the Capitol police who fought off the insurrection he helped to stoke by aggressively embracing the delusional notion that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump. Ward, Gosar and Biggs all have a similar problem: Arizona rejected Trump, and it seems doubtful that bargain-basement imitations like Arizona’s Three Stooges will be able to succeed where he failed.
Herschel Walker (R-GA)
Walker, one of the greatest college football players of all time, is being encouraged to run for Senate in Georgia by former president Trump against newly-elected incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA). The problem? Walker’s politics are incoherent, he seems to glom onto every conspiracy theory under the sun, he has a history of severe mental illness and self-harm (including playing Russian Roulette), and he lives in Texas. What could possibly go wrong?
What can the party committees do to avoid disaster? A few suggestions:
1) Recruit a strong candidate and support them in the primary. Open support may backfire, so funnelling support through a Super PAC is probably the way to go here.
2) Do your best to consolidate the field behind one anti-Disaster Candidate.
3) Show how their controversies will make them less effective. Avoid the Martha McSally mistake of highlighting the Disaster Candidate’s past controversies without tying them to their current agenda.
4) Define the Disaster Candidate early. Do not make the mistake the anti-Trump 2016 candidates made and hope the Disaster Candidate implodes on their own.
5) Have a positive agenda! Hillary Clinton learned that attacking the opposition isn’t enough. Your voters need a reason to vote FOR YOU, not just against your opponent.
Much of this is easier said than done, but the party committees should move aggressively now to stave off future headaches and unnecessary own goals. If the parties aren’t careful, the 2022 Senate election may be over before a single general election ballot is cast. In a few months, I’ll revisit this list as new candidates launch campaigns and other Disaster Candidates emerge.
Those humans have poor taste. Wiseau is a genius. “Why, Lisa, why, WHY?”
This does not include all candidates who lose competitive elections or those running in districts/states that aren’t very competitive for their party.
Who is definitely not a witch.
Let this be a lesson: if you are a Republican voter and your Democratic senator is literally begging you to nominate one specific Republican, do not under any circumstances nominate that Republican.
National Republican Senatorial Committee
Considering Trump’s presidency and re-election campaign, at least he’s consistent!
In 2018, National Journal’s Josh Kraushaar asked Data for Progress, a progressive think tank, to make a scorecard of the top competitive races with progressive nominees. The progressives went 1-for-9.
Fetterman served as mayor from 2005-2017. Braddock is a small borough and Fetterman never won more than 304 votes in any single race.
Pennsylvania selects its governor and lieutenant governor in what’s called a “shotgun primary.” The governor and lieutenant governor each must win their own primary, but they run as a joint ticket in the fall akin to a presidential election or a shotgun wedding. No Pennsylvanian independently voted for Fetterman in the November 2018 election.
Very much like Beto O’Rourke, Amy McGrath, Jamie Harrison… you catch my drift.
To be fair, Fetterman is 6’8” so he’s likely unable to fit into any mold.