In 2022 Pennsylvania will be the center of the political universe, again. For the first time since 1958, the Keystone State will host simultaneous open seat races for governor and U.S. Senator. Incumbent governor Tom Wolf (D), a mainstream progressive, is term-limited after serving two terms and is still fairly popular. Senator Pat Toomey (R), a mainstream conservative who voted to impeach former President Donald Trump, is retiring after two terms.
Both races have been rated “toss-ups” by the leading election prognosticators and are expected to be highly competitive. Naturally, a flood of candidates in both parties are lining up to seize this once-in-a-generation opportunity. I plan to examine all four primary fields, starting with the Democrats, and I will revisit these in the summer and fall as the primary fields settle. First, the least competitive primary field of them all: the Pennsylvania Democratic gubernatorial primary.
Governor:
Attorney General Josh Shapiro (Montgomery, Philly suburbs)1
The Democratic primary for governor is Shapiro’s race to lose. Shapiro has been eyeing the top job for years. He has steadily climbed the ranks of PA politics for the last decade and a half: first, state representative, then Montgomery County Commissioner, and now Attorney General. Shapiro was the top Democratic vote-getter statewide in both his 2016 and 2020 races for attorney general. His well-known plans to run for the top job with Gov. Wolf’s support have pushed most potential contenders into the open Senate primary. It would be a shocking upset if Shapiro somehow failed to win the Democratic nomination.
Philadelphia Mayor Jim Kenney
Mayor Kenney, a progressive with strong labor support, is in his second and final term as mayor of Pennsylvania’s largest city. While leading the City of Brotherly Love might seem like a great stepping stone for higher office, only two Phily mayors have won statewide since World War II. Kenney has floated bids for both Senate and governor. He would start the governor’s race as an underdog, but could try and outflank Shapiro on his left, perhaps on fracking or energy policy.
State Reps. Summer Lee [HD-34] (Allegheny, Pittsburgh suburbs), Sara Innamorato [HD-21] (Allegheny, Pittsburgh suburbs), or Elizabeth Fiedler [HD-184] (Philadelphia)
Fiedler, Innamorato, and Lee were all elected to the State House in 2018 from safe Democratic seats with support from the Democratic Socialists of America. Innamorato and Lee ousted longtime incumbents while Fiedler won an open-seat race. All three have been floated for either Senate or governor, and should any of them run they would immediately become the farthest-left candidate in either field. Given Pennsylvania Democrats’ historical preference for relative moderate statewide candidates (and support for Clinton and Biden in the 2016 and 2020 primaries) it seems unlikely any of them would be successful but they could have the effect of forcing the eventual nominee to adopt more left-leaning positions to stave off a DSA-backed challenge.
Senate:
Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman (Allegheny, Pittsburgh suburbs)
Fetterman starts off this race as the early frontrunner. He has a name recognition advantage as the only statewide officeholder running for Senate, and he competed in the Democratic primary for this seat in 2018.2 Fetterman was the first candidate to announce his campaign, and raised a record-setting $3.9 million in the first quarter of 2021, with $1.9 million cash on hand (COH). Fetterman’s populist progressive message, prominent advocacy for marijuana legalization and transgender activist issues, status as the only candidate from Western Pennsylvania competing against multiple easterners3, and large warchest make him the candidate to beat at this early point.
Fetterman is not without serious flaws. Though he has served in elective office since 2005, he has never once competed in a competitive general election, or in any electorate not made up entirely of Democrats. Bernie Sanders, who endorsed him in 2016 and 2018, did not perform well in either the 2016 or 2020 Democratic primary - not a great sign for his 6’8” protege. Additionally, Fetterman has refused to apologize for an incident where he pulled a gun on an unarmed black jogger when he was serving as the mayor of the small town of Braddock. Fetterman also faces competition for the left with Kenyatta and Arkoosh, as well as potential geographic competition from fellow suburban Pittsburgher Conor Lamb.
Finally, although Fetterman raised $3.9 million in the first quarter, he has already burned through over $2 million. This likely means Fetterman spent heavily on digital advertising in order to raise such a vast sum - simply put it costs a lot of money to raise a lot of money. A “burn rate” of over 50 percent is very, very high and probably not sustainable in the long term. Watch this space. Fetterman has pole position right now, but he is a much more fragile frontrunner than Shapiro.
Congresswoman Chrissy Houlahan [PA-06] (Chester & Berks, Philly suburbs & Reading)
On paper, Houlahan may be the strongest general election candidate Democrats have. Houlahan is a mainstream progressive, is an Air Force veteran and worked for education nonprofits before winning a competitive Chester County seat in 2018 after the Pennsylvania Supreme Court redrew the lines to make it significantly more favorable to Democrats. Houlahan was easily reelected to a second term last November, raised $585,000 in the first quarter and has a $3.5 million war chest. Her cash on hand leads the field, with only Fetterman close behind. Not at all coincidentally, Houlahan represents Pennsylvania’s wealthiest House district. Houlahan has not officially entered the primary, but she is certainly fundraising like a Senate candidate. Houlahan doesn’t face any direct competition for her Chester County base, giving her a valuable starting point in a multi-candidate field. Her background as a female military veteran, Congressional experience, and fundraising chops make her a candidate to watch.
State Senator Sharif Street [SD-3] (Philadelphia)
If there is an “establishment candidate” in this race, it’s Sharif Street. Street is the son of former Philadelphia mayor John Street, the second Black mayor of Philadelphia. Street serves as the vice chair of the state Democratic Party and is in his second term representing North Central Philadelphia and its surrounding neighborhoods in the PA Senate. Capitalizing on his establishment status, Street launched his campaign with the backing of around 100 prominent Democrats from 24 counties, including the longtime machine boss of Philly, Philly Democratic chair and former Congressman Bob Brady, Philadelphia Congressman Dwight Evans and state Senate Democratic Leader Jay Costa (D-Allegheny), Democratic Whip and past gubernatorial candidate Anthony Williams (D-Philadelphia) and Senate Democratic Appropriations chairman Vincent Hughes (D-Philadelphia).
As vice chair, Street built connections around the state and developed relationships in rural areas that most urban politicians don’t have. Only twice before have Black Democrats run for Governor, and never for Senate. Both times those candidates outperformed their polls - and neither had the party support that Street does.4 If Street can consolidate the Philadelphia vote, the Black vote, or both, he could win the primary with a plurality. Street has filed his statement of candidacy and is expected to formally announce his exploratory committee on April 9.
Congressman Conor Lamb (Allegheny & Beaver, Pittsburgh suburbs and exurbs)
Lamb is the most prominent moderate Democrat considering a Senate campaign. Lamb is a moderate progressive with a well-known last name in Pittsburgh politics - his uncle is Pittsburgh city controller and ran for auditor general in 2020, his father is one of PNC Bank’s top lobbyists and his grandfather was a longtime state senator. He is center-left on economic issues, pro-union and tends not to rock the boat on social issues. Though Lamb’s moderate tendencies have been a bit overblown, he ran ads depicting him shooting an AR-15 during his 2018 special election victory and opposes the Green New Deal and defunding the police.5 Lamb won the aforementioned 2018 special election by 700 votes in a district Trump won by 19 points, and then defeated Rep. Keith Rothfus to represent PA’s 17th district, which had just been redrawn by the PA Supreme Court to become significantly more Democratic. Lamb won reelection 51-49 against veteran Sean Parnell in a much closer race than many expected.
Lamb was a strong fundraiser in the 2018 special election, but has never quite matched that fundraising performance since. He raised $408,000 in the first quarter and has $1.1 million on hand - not even a third of what Houlahan has. Lamb’s moderate profile and history of winning tough races would appear to make him a strong general election candidate, though his politics do him no favors in the primary. Lamb is also competing for western PA votes with Fetterman, whose hardscrabble hometown, Braddock, is a 40 minute drive and a world away from Lamb’s home in the tony suburb of Mount Lebanon. Lamb has not officially entered the race, but with redistricting delays leaving his House seat in limbo, competing in a crowded Senate primary may be preferable to running for re-election in what may end up being a much more conservative district than the one he won in 2020.
Montgomery Co. Commission Chair Val Arkoosh (Montgomery, Philly suburbs)
Val Arkoosh is the Chairwoman of the Montgomery County Commission, making her the most powerful local official in Pennsylvania’s third largest and second wealthiest county. Before politics, she was a medical doctor and lost a race for PA’s 4th district in 2014 before winning a commission seat in 2015. Arkoosh became Montco Commission chair after her predecessor, Josh Shapiro, was elected Attorney General in 2016, and she won reelection in 2019. Formerly a bastion of moderate Republicanism, Montgomery has shifted left in recent decades and now is the second-largest source of Democratic votes in the state, behind only Philadelphia.
Arkoosh took charge of Montgomery County’s coronavirus response and the pandemic has given her greater prominence than the typical county commissioner. She entered the race after the end of the first quarter, so we won’t learn about her fundraising until the summer. Arkoosh’s newfound prominence, her status as an outspoken economic and social progressive and her Montgomery County base of support (in terms of both votes and money) leave her well-positioned for a crowded Democratic primary - if she is the only Montco candidate.
Congresswoman Madeleine Dean (Montgomery, Philly suburbs)
If Madeleine Dean decides to run, she will begin the race with some national name recognition from her time serving as an impeachment manager for the second impeachment of Donald Trump. Dean, a mainstream progressive, has used her perch on the Judiciary Committee to become a minor cable news fixture, and her time representing Montgomery County in the state House and in Congress gives her a base of support in a vote-rich Democratic bastion. If Dean’s profile - educated professional from Montgomery County, upscale progressive politics, rose to prominence in the past year - sounds familiar to you, that’s because it also describes Val Arkoosh (the main difference being Arkoosh is a doctor and Dean is a lawyer).
Should Dean run, she and Arkoosh will have overlapping donor and vote bases, which in all likelihood will make it difficult for either to win the primary. Dean ceded the first mover advantage to Arkoosh, and may be better off trying to rise in House leadership or running for a row office in 2024. If Arkoosh, Dean, Houlahan, Kenyatta and Street all run, that only increases the likelihood that one of the two candidates from the west - Fetterman or Lamb - win the nomination with a plurality. Dean raised a paltry $117,000 in the first quarter, and has $575,000 COH. That ain’t gonna cut it if you’re trying to run a serious statewide campaign. Dean either needs to kick her fundraising into high gear or make the subtext text and announce she’s not running.
State Representative Malcolm Kenyatta [HD-181] (Philadelphia)
Malcolm Kenyatta cuts an interesting profile: young (he’s 30), Black, LGBT, stridently progressive, and an early and active Joe Biden supporter. Kenyatta is in his second term in the PA House, representing a North Central Philadelphia district that partially overlaps with Sharif Street’s Senate district. Kenyatta, who supports Medicare for All, the Green New Deal and a $15 minimum wage, has earned prominent endorsements from the Working Families Party, the LGBTQ Victory Fund, and the Pennsylvania chapter of AFT (American Federation of Teachers). Kenyatta raised $374,000 in the first quarter and has $217,000 cash on hand, which would be an average fundraising quarter for a first-time House candidate. It remains to be seen whether Kenyatta can build on his early endorsements to run a credible campaign, but his presence on the ballot threatens to draw votes away from fellow progressive Fetterman and from fellow Philadelphian Street, especially.
Philadelphia Mayor Jim Kenney
Should Kenney pull the trigger on a Senate campaign, his status as mayor of the state’s largest city would likely push him a few spots up the list. However, Kenney has been fairly noncommittal about a statewide race so far, and until he makes up his mind on whether to run and for what office, it’s hard to rank him above the candidates who are more seriously considering or have already launched a campaign.
State Reps. Summer Lee [HD-34] (Allegheny, Pittsburgh suburbs), Sara Innamorato [HD-21] (Allegheny, Pittsburgh suburbs), or Elizabeth Fiedler [HD-184] (Philadelphia)
See above, though in the Senate primary, any of these three would be an immediate threat to Fetterman, Arkoosh and Kenyatta who are currently the left-most candidates in the field.
Not ranked: Jenkintown Borough Councilwoman Alexandria Khalil, former Norristown Municipal Council president John McGuigan, former Brighton, AL mayor Brandaun Dean, Pennsylvania Hospital emergency services chief Kevin Baumlin, and Penn Wharton professor Eric Orts. Khalil, McGuigan, Baumlin and Dean have all officially launched campaigns while Orts has announced an exploratory committee. In a crowded field with statewide officeholders, members of Congress and prominent state lawmakers, it is going to take some combination of money and attention for any of these five to break through. In all likelihood, this is the last time I will type any of their names.
The results of Pennsylvania’s Senate race could determine control of the Senate, while the governor’s race will have huge policy ramifications for the citizens of America’s fifth largest state and determine who will preside over the 2024 elections in the Keystone State. Next time, I’ll run down the Republicans seeking a statewide promotion. Buckle up!
(County, Area represented)
Fetterman earned 19.3 percent of the vote, placing a distant third behind 2010 nominee Joe Sestak and the winner, Katie McGinty, who would go on to lose to Sen. Pat Toomey in November.
Which is how Fetterman won his current position. In 2018, Fetterman faced 4 opponents from the East in the Democratic primary for lieutenant governor, allowing him to win with a 38 percent plurality.
Then-state Rep. Dwight Evans finished in a “surprising” second in the 1994 gubernatorial primary, while state Senator Anthony Williams finished third in the 2010 gubernatorial primary.
Which somehow makes him a moderate in today’s Democratic Party? But I digress.