U.S. Representative Mike Doyle, Pittsburgh’s longtime Congressman, is set to announce his retirement this afternoon. Doyle has represented significant portions of Allegheny County for nearly 27 years, his mere presence bottling up the federal ambitions of Pittsburgh Democrats for over a quarter century.
Doyle began his career as an aide to liberal Republican state senator Frank Pecora, He was first elected to Congress in the Republican Revolution of 1994, flipping an open seat in the eastern Pittsburgh suburbs vacated by newly-elected U.S. Senator Rick Santorum. After the 2000 census, Doyle’s seat was combined with the Pittsburgh-based seat of Rep. William Coyne, who retired and let Doyle take the seat uncontested. Further boundary changes in 2012 and 2018 moved Doyle’s district again, and he now represents the City of Pittsburgh, the Mon Valley, and significant swaths of eastern and southern suburban Allegheny County.
Although new district lines have yet to be drawn for 2022, a Pittsburgh-based seat has existed in one form or another for at least the past half-century and splitting Pittsburgh in two would be almost without precedent in modern Pennsylvania history. In all likelihood, this open seat will contain the City of Pittsburgh and its surrounding suburbs and will remain a safe seat for Democrats.
An Ominous Sign for House Democrats
Doyle had a fairly unremarkable career in Congress, given his seniority and uncommon status as the sole representative of a major American city. Only four bills he introduced became law: a bill on methane research; an improvement to the national Do Not Call list; the Local Community Radio Act of 2010; and a law renaming the federal courthouse in Pittsburgh. Doyle also co-sponsored the 2013 FCC regulatory reform law and the 2014 Autism CARES Act. Doyle has served as the House Energy Subcommittee on Communications and Technology chair since 2019, and was previously the ranking member.
After serving for over a quarter century and finally rising to subcommittee chair two years ago, Doyle’s decision to retire can be seen as another sign that senior Democrats expect to lose the House in 2022. The House minority is a desolate place, with little power especially compared to the Senate. Few representatives give up their power willingly, especially after waiting so long to achieve so little, unless they expect their party to return to minority status for the indefinite future. Doyle is not the only senior Democrat to head for the exits in recent weeks. Coupled with a major chairman’s retirement last week and most Trump-seat Democrats’ decisions to retire rather than seek reelection, the tea leaves are not looking good for House Democrats in next years’ midterms.
“Entrenched” is an Understatement
Doyle’s only significant challenge in recent years in either the primary or general election came in 2020. Jerry Dickinson, a self-declared democratic socialist and University of Pittsburgh law professor who is African-American, declared it was time for new leadership and campaigned vigorously against Doyle for over a year. Doyle turned back his challenge easily, 67-33, and swept to victory in November 70-30 against token Republican opposition.
Doyle’s entrenched status has stunted the federal ambitions of two generations of Pittsburgh Democrats. Pittsburgh has seen highly competitive Democratic primaries for mayor, state legislature and other local races in recent years, while Doyle has consistently been reelected with little opposition, if he has been opposed at all.
Doyle won his initial primary in 1994 with less than 20 percent of the vote. His retirement will likely open the floodgates for every ambitious Democrat looking for a quick promotion to one of the safest seats in Congress. In the absence of a candidate who can clear the field - which seems unlikely - it’s reasonable to expect a veritable clown car of candidates trying their hand, knowing they can, in theory, be set for life with just 19 percent of the vote.
So who are the Pennsylvania Democrats most likely to throw their hats in the ring?
Game of Thrones, Yinzer Edition
The Big Dogs (and Jerry)
Allegheny County executive Rich Fitzgerald is probably the only candidate who could clear the field of all candidates except Dickinson and Summer Lee (see below). Fitzgerald is in the final two years of his third term as county executive, and has never faced serious opposition since his first election in 2011. Allegheny Co. district attorney Stephen Zappala won renomination against a progressive challenger in 2019 in a closer-than-expected race, and has run for statewide office several times without success. Should a number of progressives announce bids, Zappala could conceivably win with a plurality in a divided field.
After unexpectedly losing his primary to state representative Ed Gainey in May, Pittsburgh mayor Bill Peduto could consider a comeback bid, following the path of other big-city mayors trading in City Hall for the House Floor, e.g. former Phoenix mayor, now Rep. Greg Stanton (D-AZ). Peduto would bring instant name-ID and fundraising chops, but he is thought to be considering more media-prominent and lucrative roles in the realm of climate change activism and may consider the day-to-day of serving in Congress less appealing. Peduto’s chief of staff, Dan Gilman, is a former member of city council who will also be looking for work come January. If Peduto passes, a Gilman bid is certainly possible.
2020 candidate Jerry Dickinson already announced a second bid against Doyle before Doyle’s retirement announcement. I suspect most of his 32.8 percent support in 2020 was “anti-Doyle” rather than “pro-Jerry,” so his presence seems likelier to dilute the hard-left vote than it is to result in his victory, but stranger things have happened I suppose.
The County Delegation
Allegheny County is represented by four Democrats in the PA Senate. Senate Minority Leader Jay Costa seems unlikely to trade his Harrisburg influence to be a junior Congressman. Sens. Jim Brewster and Wayne Fontana are both in their early 70’s and seem more likely to retire after their next terms than seek a promotion.1
Out of the entire delegation, Sen. Lindsey Williams may be the most likely to take the plunge. The democratic socialist represents a largely suburban seat in Allegheny County that just barely includes some of Pittsburgh’s North Side. She won by 500 votes in the best year for Democrats since 2018, and is widely considered to be the most vulnerable Senate incumbent heading into 2022. A primary bid for Congress may be the less risky option than seeking reelection in her current seat. She does not live in Doyle’s district but that was not a problem for now-U.S. Reps. Conor Lamb and Guy Reschenthaler.
Allegheny County sends fifteen Democrats to the State House, and a bid by one or more of them seems inevitable. Rep. Summer Lee, an African-American democratic socialist who knocked off a longtime Democratic incumbent in 2018, seems almost certain to announce her run. Her hard-left views would make her a natural candidate to join “The Squad,” and would likely gain her more media exposure and influence on the left-wing fringe of the U.S. House than as a backbench nonentity in the PA House. Rep. Sara Innamorato, another democratic socialist who beat an incumbent in 2018, may run as well though two DSA-members (not to mention Dickinson and Williams) could split the hard-Left vote and ensure victory for a more moderate contender.
Gainey’s victory in the mayoral primary, coupled with the likelihood Rep. Jake Wheatley (a former mayoral candidate in his own right) joins his administration, means that there will be two open state house seats in downtown Pittsburgh to divert ambition elsewhere. Reps. Dan Frankel and Dan Deasy have represented portions of the city for at least a decade and may be the name-ID and voter support to make a serious bid. Rep. Dan Miller represents wealthy Mt. Lebanon, which is currently in PA-17 but may move with redistricting. His upscale constituency could provide a solid fundraising base for a congressional bid.
Rep. Brandon Markosek, Emily Kinkead, Jessica Benham, and Nick Pisciottano are all in their first terms in the State House. While a bid by a first termer isn’t unheard of, it’s a big leap and none of the four have demonstrated the fundraising chops necessary to compete at this higher level. Kinkead defeated an incumbent (who was the brother of a former Pittsburgh mayor), so she, out of the four, may be the most likely to jump in.
Rep. Tony DeLuca is 83, and Rep. Austin Davis is thought to be considering a run for lieutenant governor. Reps. Anita Astorino Kulik and Rob Matzie live outside the district are likely too conservative to seriously compete in a Democratic primary for federal office.
County & City Councils
Allegheny County Council has only existed for about twenty years, and in that time few members have used council as a launching pad for higher office. At-large member Bethany Hallam defeated a longtime incumbent in 2019, and is a high-profile progressive who could make a credible bid for Congress, although she has been dogged by a number of controversies in her short time in office. Fellow council progressive Olivia Bennett, who is African-American and also in her first term, could conceivably run, but the rest of council Democrats are either old or sitting in competitive seats where a failed attempt at a promotion could endanger their bids for reelection.
Turning to Pittsburgh City Council, councilmembers Bruce Kraus, Corey O’Connor and Erika Strassburger are likely to consider bids. Kraus, Pittsburgh’s first gay elected official, was council president from 2014-2020 and is more well-known than the typical member of city council. Likewise, O’Connor is particularly well-known as the son of former mayor Bob O’Connor, and as a Pittsburgh Central Catholic graduate can tap into the network of largely white, all-male Central graduates that underlies much of the “old boys club” network that has had a stranglehold on Pittsburgh politics in recent decades.2 Strassburger won a special election to council as a progressive independent, defeating the Democratic nominee and is a sought-after endorsement among county Democrats.
Get Ready for an Avalanche of Yard Signs
Mike Doyle’s almost-certain retirement will lead to the most significant shakeup in Pittsburgh’s political representation in my lifetime. Even if only five of the potential candidates end up launching campaigns, the vacancies they create will lead to a game of electoral musical chairs that cascades far down the ballot. When the dust settles in 2023, Pittsburgh’s representation may be completely transformed, with a new mayor, member of Congress, at least three new state representatives - and that’s before a single major candidate has announced a bid!3 Buckle up, Pittsburgh.
To be fair, a man in his early 70’s is young for a member of House Democratic leadership.
Other alumni include Rep. Conor Lamb, ex-Rep. Bill Coyne, county executive Rich Fitzgerald and Allegheny DA Stephen Zappala. The incumbents defeated by Summer Lee and Sara Innamorato were both Central grads.
Yes, Dickinson has been running for months. Statement holds.