Pennsylvania selects its local and judicial officials in the year after the presidential elections. Across the commonwealth voters will head to the polls to choose their judges, mayors, county officials and local councilors and commissioners. In May, Republican-backed ballot initiatives passed with majority support, and Keystone State Republicans hope these successes continue tomorrow. Pennsylvania Democrats are fighting this election in an environment marked by President Biden’s cratering poll numbers and rising voter anxieties over inflation, crime, the economy, and education.
Given the state of polling in recent years, these elections will be the best indicator of how Pennsylvania will trend in the even more consequential 2022 midterm elections, just over a year away. The May primary election results were promising for Pennsylvania Republicans, but it remains to be seen whether the Democrats are energized to avenge their May defeat or demoralized by the national environment, as is typical for the president’s party in off-year elections.
Without further ado, the top 10 races to watch tomorrow:
10. Bethlehem & Bensalem Mayor
Bethlehem is the 8th largest city in Pennsylvania and the 2nd largest in the Lehigh Valley. Bethlehem city councilman J. William Reynolds, the Democratic nominee, is heavily favored over Republican John Kochmar, a career public administrator. While Reynolds is favored, a Republican upset here is not out of the question.
In Bensalem, incumbent Joseph DiGirolamo (R) is seeking another term governing Pennsylvania’s 10th largest municipality after 24 years in office. Bensalem is the largest city in Pennsylvania with a Republican mayor. DiGirolamo is the uncle of former state representative, now Bucks County commissioner Gene DiGirolamo. Longtime educator Val Ridge is challenging DiGirolamo on the Democratic ticket.
9. Allegheny County Council (12 D, 3 R)
Allegheny County, the county that includes Pittsburgh, is Pennsylvania’s second-largest with a population of 1.3 million. Allegheny County Council has 15 members, 13 elected by district and 2 elected at-large. County Council has been dominated by Democrats since its creation twenty years ago. Council members serve 4-year terms and half of the seats are up every two years. After Democrats flipped one seat each in the 2017 and 2019 elections, Republican representation is at an all-time low. Republicans hold 20 percent of the seats in a county where Trump won 39 percent of the vote in 2020.
Three seats are competitive. District 3 (north-central) is the most competitive. Democratic socialist incumbent Anita Prizio won by 300 votes in 2017, and faces former Congressional chief of staff Meredith Dolan.1 District 1 (north-west) is being vacated by Tom Baker (R), who won reelection narrowly in 2017. Joe Wise, the Republican nominee, tragically passed away on Saturday. Even so, should he still defeat Jack Betkowski (D) his replacement would be selected by the Republican Caucus. District 8 (east) features an open-seat race between Eric Casteel (R) and Michelle Naccarati-Chapkis (D), though this district has only been represented by Democrats.
8. Philadelphia, Bucks & Westmoreland Co. District Attorneys
Three large PA counties feature contested races for District Attorney. In Philadelphia, hard-left incumbent Larry Krasner, who defeated more moderate candidates in the 2017 and 2021 Democratic primaries for DA, is facing Democrat-turned-Republican challenger Chuck Peruto, a longtime defense attorney. Republicans have not held this office since 1991.
In Bucks, a highly-competitive “collar county” bordering Philadelphia and PA’s 4th-most populous, incumbent DA Matt Weintraub (R) is being challenged by former Bucks Co. prosecutor Antoinetta Stancu (D). Biden carried Bucks 51.5-47.2 in 2020 while incumbent Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick (R) cruised to a 56.6-43.4 reelection victory, so either party could win this race.
Westmoreland County is the second-most populous county in Western PA and has shifted in the last twenty years from solidly-Democratic to solidly-Republican. Six-term incumbent John Peck (D) is facing off with near-miss 2020 state senate candidate Nicole Ziccarelli (R). Ziccarelli has outspent the incumbent 9-to-1.
7. Harrisburg Mayor
Harrisburg, Pennsylvania’s “meh” capital city, features a mayoral race unlike anywhere in the country except Buffalo, NY. In both cities, the incumbent mayors lost the primary to black women, then decided to mount write-in campaigns in the general election. While Buffalo mayor Byron Brown has managed to secure endorsements from prominent Democrats in his race against socialist India Walton, Harrisburg mayor Eric Papenfuse has not had the same good fortune. PA Democrats have closed ranks behind Harrisburg city council president Wanda Williams. Papenfuse, a two-term incumbent, lost the primary by 46 votes.
6 - Allentown Mayor
Allentown is Pennsylvania’s third-largest city and the center of the Lehigh Valley region north of Philadelphia. Either Democratic nominee Matt Tuerk or Republican candidate Tim Ramos could win on Tuesday, though Tuerk is favored in a city that hasn’t elected a Republican mayor since 2001. Ramos, a Hispanic Republican, is actively competing for Allentown’s fast growing bloc of Hispanic voters. If Republicans are having a great night on Tuesday, keep an eye on Allentown.
5. Pittsburgh Mayor
Pittsburgh is home to its first truly contested mayoral general election since 2007. Democratic nominee Ed Gainey, a longtime state representative, defeated two-term incumbent Bill Peduto in an upset and seems likely to become Pittsburgh’s first black mayor. Republican nominee Tony Moreno is a heavy underdog, like all Republicans in Pittsburgh elections.2 Moreno, a retired police officer, actually placed third in the Democratic primary but won the Republican nomination with write-in votes.
In the 2007 special election after the death of then-Mayor Bob O’Connor, Republican nominee Mark DeSantis won 34.9 percent against then-new Mayor Luke Ravenstahl, who would later go on to be the youngest ex-mayor of a major American city after a scandal-plagued seven year tenure. DeSantis’s 34.9 percent is the Republican high-water mark in city elections in the 21st century. Barring an upset of world-historic proportions, the main question in this race is whether Moreno can beat DeSantis’s performance.
4. Commonwealth Court (7R-2D)
Pennsylvania loves its elected officials. We have the second-largest legislature (203 seats) and not one but TWO intermediate courts of appeal. Commonwealth Court handles litigation involving the Commonwealth, while the Superior Court handles civil and criminal cases. For the Commonwealth Court, appointed judge Drew Compton (R) and attorney Stacy Wallace (R) are competing for two seats currently held by Republicans against Democrats Lori Dumas and David Spurgeon, judges for the courts of common pleas of Philadelphia and Allegheny County, respectively. If Democrats can win both seats, they will reduce Republican’s last judicial majority to just one vote.
3. Superior Court (7R-7D, 1 vacancy)
Philadelphia Court of Common Pleas judge Timika Lane (D) faces deputy attorney general Megan Sullivan (R) for the seat of retiring judge Susan Gantman and control of the Superior Court. Their race will determine partisan control over the Superior Court.
2. Erie & Northampton County Executive
Erie and Northampton counties are two of the three Democratic counties Donald Trump flipped on his way to carrying the state in 2016. In 2020, Biden won both counties by 49-48 margins, similar to his 50-49 statewide win. In Erie, former Congresswoman Kathy Dahlkemper (D) has served two terms and is term-limited. Veteran Brenton Davis (R) is running against Erie County school board president Tyler Titus (D), who would be the first transgender county executive in the nation.
In Northampton, Democratic incumbent Lamont McClure is being challenged by Republican Steve Lynch, who has faced criticism for attending the rally that preceded the Capitol riot on January 6. Lynch, however, has history on his side as every recent race has been won by the party out of power. As these counties go, so does Pennsylvania.
1. Pennsylvania Supreme Court (5D-2R)
Pennsylvania Democrats secured a 5-2 majority on the state Supreme Court in 2015. That majority has since enacted controversial mid-decade redistricting in 2018 and upheld Gov. Wolf’s pandemic restrictions in 2020. Associate Justice Thomas Saylor (R) is retiring, and even if Republicans hold his seat the earliest they can retake the majority will be 2025. If Democrats can secure a 6-1 majority, they could conceivably maintain hold on the Supreme Court well into the 2030s. Commonwealth Court judge Kevin Brobson (R) and Superior Court judge Maria McLaughlin (D) and associated outside groups have spent a combined $5 million on this race. This is Tuesday’s marquee race, and a must-win for Republicans.
On Tuesday, Pennsylvanians will elect four new statewide judges, the mayors of six of Pennsylvania’s ten largest cities as well as the state capital3, and municipal and county officials across the commonwealth. The results of these elections will set the tone for 2022, when Pennsylvania features open-seat races for governor and U.S. Senate. Make sure to subscribe below for further analysis once the ballots have been counted.
Full disclosure: I am an active volunteer for Meredith Dolan and hope she wins this race.
The last Republican mayor of Pittsburgh left office in 1931(!)
Scranton and Erie will also elect mayors on Tuesday, although both races are uncompetitive and the Democratic incumbents are heavily favored.